Musings from Istanbul...

The Turkish GP was both exhilarating and intriguing at the same time. MATF1 was lucky enough to be at the race (my first) and the atmosphere was awesome. Situated in the grandstand of turns 3, 4, 5 & 6, turns 1, 8 and 11 were also visible – as was the back straight. Of course, this was the scene of Red Bull’s capitulation; a crash that signified the self imposed pressure on Vettel’s shoulders and highlighted how Webber would rather have seen them both retire than let his ‘boy-wonder’ team mate regain the momentum within the team. I don’t blame the Aussie; he had every right to hold his line and it was young Sebastian who moved across into his path, but Webber normally seems so much wiser than to let an accident happen. As with all drivers of his generation and experience, they know that to finish first, first you have to finish.

There is more to it of course. For the first time since they have been paired together, Webber has had the upper hand over Vettel – a scenario that saw them tied at the top of the table (albeit with Webber listed first on win count back) prior to the race in Turkey. Also, as Webber’s chance last year was written off by his early season form (and Brawn’s pace), 2010 represents his absolutely BEST chance at the world title – new regulations for 2011 could see the Red Bull advantage gone next year. If the RB7 is a dud then Mark might never get the chance again; he must make the most of this one.

By comparison, Vettel is widely tipped for legendary status before his time in F1 is up. He is now in his third full season after he made his debut substituting for Robert Kubica at the US GP in 2007 (where he scored points) and he has already won 6 races (at this stage of their respective careers, Schumacher and Alonso had won only 1 race – and they were both older than Vettel is now). However, Vettel has NEVER been beaten by a team mate. More accurately, Sebastian has rarely done less than blow his team mates away. He doesn’t know how to cope with Mark’s form at the moment let alone the luck the Aussie is getting (Seb would have beaten Mark to pole had it not been for a failure of a rollbar linkage – he was generally the quicker of the Bulls last weekend). All of this piled onto his shoulders and left him (in his mind anyway) with little choice than to take the half-chance overtake when it presented itself.

This overtake was loaded; succeed and Vettel would have been at the top of the standings and would have found his footing once again. If he had succeeded we may have seen some Sebastian dominance over the next few races, but he didn’t and now finds himself in 5th place in the standings; still struggling to find his mojo. Red Bull need to put their arm around Vettel and remind him that his time WILL come again; reassure him that he was the quickest in Istanbul and try to encourage him to redouble his focus and remember that the season is long. If they don’t then they could face losing their star should Mercedes come along and offer a seat (which could happen if Schumi re-retires).

There is another factor though. McLaren. What was a 0.8 second advantage in Spain was 0.1s in quali and nothing in the race. The Brits have caught the Bulls; their cars have different strengths but over a lap they were all but equal in Turkey. This adds another problem because this team knows how to win titles and neither driver has the pressure of the Red Bulls. Hamilton is confident he can out-race anybody and I don’t think that anybody is driving as maturely and completely as Jenson Button at the moment; he is thinking all the time – knowing when to have a go and when to settle for second. Add a new aero package which has given the McLarens the edge around tight and twisty corners (not to mention the F-duct which is giving them a 6kph straight line advantage) and you can see why they too could be dominant in the coming races.

Turkey may not have decided the title race but it has definitely shaped it and turned it; Red Bull was just starting to pull away from the field but their advantage is now non-existent. McLaren are expected to dominate along the straights of the circuit de Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal and if that turns out to be true then the Bulls might start to regret their early season mistakes (Bahrain, Australia & China) which cost them the head start Brawn enjoyed last year. To this, add two drivers who are so hungry that they won’t even offer each other an inch of tarmac and you can see how they might have already defeated themselves.

Turkey was the 7th race in a 19 race season and I think that the potential 8 driver list who could win the Championship is now down 5. Mark Webber, Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel are the drivers who have won races this season and I feel the winner will be one of them. For Mercedes and Massa only an unprecedented run of victories will steer them towards the title now and judging by the pace of the leading two teams, Fernando Alonso could soon be out of the running too (Ferrari slipped behind both Mercedes and Renault in Istanbul).

So who would you pick; Red Bull or McLaren?