2010 was superb, 2009 a landmark, 2008 dramatic to the last and 2007 the same. Each of the above has delivered a new champion and arguably been better than the previous, can 2011 deliver more of the same?2011 will see the third iteration of the rules introduced in 2009. Gone are the double diffusers and in come moveable rear wings. KERS also makes a reappearance, giving a little benefit to the teams who have it and giving all teams the chance to explore further into the technology which will be a major performance differential from 2013 onwards (when the regulations have their next periodic overhaul). However, the biggest difference for 2011 is the move to Pirelli tyres. Pirelli have specifically designed tyres which are sub-optimal; tyres which don't last indefinitely and therefore should induce an extra pitstop into most races. The obvious conclusion is therefore just a statement which has been true for as long as F1 has existed - the car/driver combination which best manages its tyres will probably be the strongest. But, will this make for a competitive and close season?
Well, as far as drivers are concerned, there are 5 world champions on the grid and at least another 3 (Webber, Massa & Rosberg) who aren't too far off. To this end, if the cars are evenly matched, it is reasonable to expect multiple winners from multiple teams; plenty are capable of it.
So the real question is whether the teams will be close in performance or not. Testing is notoriously difficult and unreliable to read but there is no doubting that the Red Bull is supremely fast. Ferrari tend to try and hog the limelight; peppering their long (consistent) runs with flashes of qualifying pace but it's the reigning champions who exude an air of confidence that comes with scoring 14 of the 19 pole positions last year. So are they touchable? Ferrari are close, very close. Indeed with Fernando Alonso behind the wheel they are very close indeed. McLaren feel pressured to win a constructor's title for the first time since 1998. They have two experienced world champions as drivers and most of the British public behind them. They want this seemingly more than the driver's crown and as such have gone radical in their design. It remains to be seen just how fast the MP4/26 actually is but I am optimistic; especially with the teams relative success with KERS in 2009. A word of warning though - so far testing puts them roughly 3rd; I hope they're hiding something.
Mercedes and Renault may also challenge in parts but they both seem inconsistent. The Renault in particular seems capable of very fast single laps but I get the impression that it isn't quite as kind on its tyres as the top teams. I would love to see it win though; the car is undoubtedly the most attractive of the 2011 crop. However, I feel that it's best chance was Robert Kubica. I wish him a speedy recovery - Nick Heidfeld is no slouch but cannot seem to drag every ounce from the car like Kubica - he will be missed. Mercedes is pinning its hopes on a pre-season upgrade but from what I have seen I doubt that Schumi will reach championship 8 this year.
So, will anyone usurp Red Bull? I doubt it - I really think that 2011 will see Vettel retain his crown and moreover I fear that the team will be even better now that they don't have the pressure of delivering the first title. I think they will have learnt from the tactical and political errors that they made last year and as their car is an evolution of the RB6 they will be reliable too. Expect domination, almost. Ferrari will be close and have their own political pressures to deliver a title but I really don't expect a repeat of the 5-way fight we saw last year.I hope I'm proved wrong but in my opinion 2011 is going to break the trend and thusly deliver the same champions as 2010.
