Will the Rule Changes Make a Difference? Part 2

My second peek into F1 2010's new rules assesses how changes to the tyre regulations could mean a change in which drivers run at the front.

Tyres are the biggest limiting factor in how well modern formula 1 cars run. In the days of the tyre war between Michelin and Bridgestone they defined which races were won by Renault (06) / McLaren (03) / Williams (03) and which were won by Ferrari. Indeed, you could argue that Ferrari had an advantage when F1 moved to a single tyre supplier in 2007 as they were already up to speed with how the Bridgestone tyres worked (funny how then Ferrari driver Kimi Raikkonen won that year's championship). It is ALWAYS the case that the car/driver package which works the tyres in a way most suited to that compound goes fastest.

2009 saw a return to slick tyres for the first time for nearly a decade. Unlike the grooved tyres that they replaced, slicks give much more instant performance. The reason for this is that slicks give a bigger contact area with the tarmac thus 'gluing' the car to the road more effectively (and therefore giving more mechanical grip). This has two effects on performance. The first is that the cars now oversteer less; if the car is better 'stuck' to the track then it is less likely to slide - despite Lewis Hamilton's best efforts. Secondly, the tyres are effectively softer; they don't need to generate as much heat to generate grip. This means that they are more prone to overheating and wearing out. This is why the Brawn was so good; it was so kind to its tyres that it could make them perform at their optimum for the longest during the races. It is also why Jenson's smooth driving style where he never jabs at the throttle but applies it progressively (minimising wheel spin and maximising traction) saw him perform the best over a whole stint between pitstops and thus always race better than he qualified.

Next year the tyres are changing again (all be it only minimally); the front tyres are going to be narrower than the rears. This has the effect of giving a relatively larger amount of grip to the rear tyres when compared to the fronts. If the rears have a larger proportion of the grip then the car is even less likely to slide and furthermore, the lower grip at the front of the car will lead to an increased level of understeer. All of this means that drivers who like a car to be twitchy; oversteering and sliding around low speed corners will be at a disadvantage (or rather will have to do more work on the setup at race weekends - in particular with weight distribution - which could make the overall car performance sub-optimal). In this category lie Hamilton and Alonso. On the other hand, if a driver likes the car to be very predictable in its behaviour then he could be aided by the new specification tyre. This is most definitely Button territory.

Of course, drivers will adapt to the different tyre performances and within a few races one shouldn't be too favoured over another. It will be fascinating to see.

Will the Rule Changes Make a Difference? Part 1

In this lull between Christmas and New Year I have the chance to catch up on a few things that I haven't managed to post on. Over the next few days I will look into the rule changes that are being imposed for 2010 and what impact they are likely to have on the racing and championship outcome.

BTW, I hope you enjoyed my Christmas Poem (see below if you haven't read it yet).

I am going to start by assessing the changes to the scoring system. In 2010 the top 10 finishing positions will be awarded points as follows: 25, 20, 15, 10, 8, 6, 5, 3, 2, 1. The reason for this change is that next year there are going to be an extra 6 cars on the grid and if the top 8 were the only positions to score then there would be a real danger that there could be a lot of non-scoring teams.

There is a lot of money riding on each position in the final constructors table and with four new teams (not to mention the 'small' teams of Toro Rosso, Sauber and Force India plus the unstable Renault team) all of whom are struggling for sponsorship deals as the world emerges form the recession; it is important that they have something to distinguish between them (and something to race for). Allowing the top ten all to score means that even if the season is dominated by the 'big four' of McLaren, Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari there are still points available for the rest. After all, with Richard Branson and Tony Fernandes (Lotus/Litespeed boss) having a bet of their own - the person who's team finishes lower at the end of the serason must work as a stewardess on the other's airline for a day - there is a need for the (expected) minnows to score.

However, will this change alter the championship destination or the racing at the front end of the grid?

Last year, Bernie Ecclestone wanted to introduce a medal system where the podium finishers were awarded with gold, silver and bronze medals and the driver with the most golds at the end would win the title. Luckily, this wasn't introduced. Bernie claimed that it would make the drivers race for every position - fight to win rather than just accept second. I doubt that this would be the case; normally if a driver can win the race he will and only team orders (which only happen when the driver ordered to settle for second can't win the title or has already won it) prevent this.

With 5 points between each place on the podium it would seem that the new system puts more value on each place gained. However, the change is relative: This year second place received 80% of the winning points (8 to 10) and that will remain next year (20 to 25), similarly 3rd will still receive 60% of the winning points. The changes do make it more valuable to be on the podium (4th now gets 40% as opposed to 50%) but it is unlikely that this will change the title destination. In fact, if this system had been in place since 2003 (when the 'old' system was introduced) the championship would always have been awarded to the same driver. The only difference is that in a couple occasions the chasing pack would have been closer.

It therefore seems that the FIA has made a sensible choice to change the points system. It will mean that next year could (and probable should) see a new record for the amount of points won and drivers will probably feel worse if they retire. There is no doubting that 25 points lost feels a lot worse than 10 but essentially it is the same. Lets hope that the racing means that the championships are just as close as the last few have been.

By the way, I have changed the privacy settings on this site so anyone should now be able to comment - not just blogspot members. If someone could test that out for me I would be most grateful (PLEASE KEEP IT CLEAN). Also, I now have an e-mail address for this site alone so if you want to contact me at all just send your message to matf1@live.co.uk. I hope these changes mean that your enjoyment of this site is further increased.

Twas the night before christmas

and all through F1

Engineers were resting;

the season now done.

'09 a suprise

few could've predicted.

The championship for Brawn

'though Red Bull nearly nicked it.

A year when teams rose, fell and grew up.

Baron for Beemer,

Renault and Toyota.

The summer was Indian!

The class of '08

had their part in this play.

Lewis, Kimi and Robert -

they all had their day.

Lets not forget Massa;

his drama unwanted.

F1 is still dangerous,

thank God for the helmet.

Controversy too

was found off of the track,

with diffusers, Crashgate, Donington,

Vatanen and Todt.

But in the end

the Hero was British.

Our Jense number 1,

finally,

finally he won!

So to 2010,

are you getting excited?

77 days to go -

Not that I've counted!

Button v Hamilton v

Alonso and Schumacher.

Only 1 can be champion,

thank you Santa!!

Don't Forget About Nick!!

This week went a long way to shaping the 2010 grid. Renault are confirmed (all be it with a new partner taking a 75% stake in the team), Peter Sauber has hired the first of his drivers and both the Virgin and Lotus teams have revealed their line ups. However, with Michael Schumacher looking likely to make a comeback with Mercedes, has Nick Heidfeld waited too long to find a drive?

Nick Heidfeld doesn't just have a monkey on his back; it's basically a gorilla. He holds the record for the most points scored without a race win (and the most podiums without reaching the top step), he has had 10 seasons in formula 1 but yet never seems likely to achieve the success that got him to the top flight in the first place.

In 1999 Heidfeld broke all the records on his way to the F3000 (then support to F1) series. He was the next big thing. On the back of this success he became a Mercedes protogee and was the favourite to replace Mika Hakkinen at McLaren after he retired in 2001. Nick had beaten eventual replacement Kimi Raikkonen in the Sauber team that year and while Kimi drove to victory after victory in McLarens and Ferraris, Nick spent most of the next 8 seasons in the midfield - opportunistically taking the podium chances when they arose. His best chance at a victory came at the 2008 Canadian GP but he had to move aside for his team mate Robert Kubica.

This week, Virgin announced that Lucas Di Grassi would be joining Timo Glock and Lotus confirmed Jarno Trulli and Heikki Kovalainen will be piloting their cars for 2010. Meanwhile, Peter Sauber reintroduced himself to the driver market and quickly snapped up young hotshot Kamui Kobayashi. There are only a few seats left; 1 at Campos, 2 at USGP, 1 at Sauber, 1 (maybe 2) at Renault, and 1 at Mercedes.

USGP won't want Nick - wrong nationality for the brand. Campos might want him but they won't be able to deliver the winning car Heidfeld craves. Peter Sauber is a friend of Nicks but may be forced into prolonging Giancarlo Fisichella's career as a favour to Ferrari (it will keep their understudy 'race fit' incase he is required to substitute again). Will Renault be a team on the rebound (and therefore really good) or a team that heads deeper into the mire without its talismanic leader Alonso and (more importantly) technical genius Pat Symonds? Kubica (who will probably stay put despite rumours to the contrary - where will he go?) is certainly betting on the former and hopes to install himself as the new figurehead to the team. That leaves the drive that Heidfeld is holding out for; Mercedes. He's got a shot - he is German after all, and Mercedes could do worse - he is a safe pair of hands but is he good enough to lead a title challenge? Unfortunately for Nick it seems that the Silver Arrows want a race winner (hence Michael).

However, there is still hope; what if Schumacher fails the medical examination and thus can't cope with the stains of an F1 car? Merc can't afford to put a rookie alongside Rosberg - they could be out of the title race by May if their drivers take too long to get up to speed. This is what Nick is waiting for and it is a fair gamble; the prize is one of the best seats on the grid. What if it doesn't happen though? Sauber won't wait forever and Renault certainly won't. That would leave Campos and the prospect of fading further away from the top.

If I was Heidfeld I would be harassing Peter Sauber or (Renault's new owner) Gerard Lopez non-stop, trying to persuade them that I was who they want in their car. I would secure a drive and be happy that I don't have to gamble on a new team.

If Quick Nick isn't doing this then he faces the prospect of fading further away from the top and leaving F1 as the most successful person never to win a race. The gorilla will soon be King Kong.

Never Say Never Again

A few weeks ago I stated that the Michael Schumacher to Mercedes rumour was put out there as publicity for a team which had just lost their World Champion's services for the coming year but it seems I was wrong. Is this really about to happen?!

Thing is that back in October when Button sealed the title Ross Brawn stated that their new champ was 99% certain to drive for him next year. I think that he firmly believed this, what's more I think that Button also wanted to reach an agreement. Button could have stayed and partnered Nico Rosberg for 2010 (and made more money than he will at McLaren next year) but the problem was that Mercedes see the future in Sebastian Vettel (who doesn't) and so Jenson refused the single year Mercedes were offering in favour of 3 years at McLaren.

Rumours started to fly about who would fill the void left by Button with the press leaping on any driver out of a contract. Thus the Michael seed was sown, the smart money was still on Heidfeld though. Mercedes, aware that it may take up to half a season for Rosberg to reach the podium's top step wanted a proven winner to lead the team - but someone who won't mind moving over as soon as they can prize Vettel from Red Bull. Michael sees Vettel as his successor as Germany's motorsport hero (ok Rosberg is 'German' but its Vettel who has won 5 GPs already and sits alongside Schumi at the annual Race of Champions) so won't mind moving when the time's right.

hy would Michael want to race again? Quite simply, he retired before he wanted to. Kimi Raikkonen was singned to be a Ferrari driver in 2007 before Michael announced he was going so he had two choices; race against the (then motivated) Finn or quit while ahead.

He chose the latter but only after he won the Italian Grand Prix, this was significant because it was that race which brought him back into the title fight (Fernando Alonso's Renault had just blown up whilst running third - in fact winning the following race in China levelled the scores at 116 a piece making it a 2 race shoot out for the title). It wasn't to be. Fernando outscored Michael 16 - 5 in the final two races to retain his title. Schumi had all the momentum and still lost, 'Nando was hailed as the new king. Had the title gone the other way I don't think Michael would even be considering a comeback.

Don't get me wrong - it has been evident ever since leaving that Michael misses motorsport; he's tried his hand at bikes and still races karts but the lack of F1 testing has left him with a hole. He jumped at the chance of replacing Massa (where he could have raced for fun - without the pressures of a title fight) but his neck was too weak from a biking accident.

A single season, warming the seat for Vettel is therefore quite attractive. If the car is one of the best out there he can become the first 8 time champion, take his win tally to 100 (currently 91) and beat Fernando when Fernando is driving for the Ferrari team that HE built and made world beaters again. Not to mention the chance to race Lewis Hamilton - the two have never raced (lest we forget Hamilton beat Alonso). If the car is not one of the best then he can do what he was going to do last year; race for fun with nothing to prove.

The more I look at this the more likely it seems. There is clearly strong motivation from all sides. Drivers and pundits are becomming convinced (what have they heard?). At the weekend Germany's version of the Sun stated that a contract had been agreed. Yesterday Ferrari president Luca di Montezemolo said that he would not stand in Michael's way if he wanted to race for a competitor and Nick 'poker face as good as a Cheshire Cat' Fry (Brawn GP CEO) has been all too vocal "the view from inside F1, not just my team, is that they all hope it will happen."

There are personal sponsors that would have to agree - lots of them link Scumi to Ferrari but they could move with him or equally switch support to Alonso; I don't see this as a problem. The final piece of the jigsaw is a medical check that will determine whether his neck is now fully healed.

All that remains is for the man himself to speak. Expect an announcement imminently (Renault are stating their future plans tomorrow so maybe Thursday?).

I think the GOAT (greatest of all time), statistically at least, is about to make a comeback...

British GP Saved!

Finally we can say it aloud; there will be a Grand Prix at Silverstone on July 11th 2010. What's more, there WILL be a British GP for the next 17 years! Breathe a sigh of relief...

When thinking of F1 venues, which five come to mind first?

For me its Monaco, Spa Francorchamps (Belgium), Monza (Italy), Silverstone and Interlagos (Brazil). In fact, add those to Suzuka (Japan), Nurbergring (Germany), Adelaide, Montreal and Le Mans and you have an awe inspiring list of circuits which are all famed and would be in most people's top ten. As you can imagine, I was vey pleased when Damon Hill (1996 WDC and current president of the BRDC) announced that they had reached an agreement that will keep Silverstone on the calendar for the next 17 years.

17 years is a long time and it finally gives the circuit owners a chance to improve the venue and make the modifications that will bring Silverstone up to the standard of most other F1 tracks. The reason this hadn't already been done is that for (at least) the last 5 years there has been a question mark over whether Britain would make it onto the subsequent year's calendar and so there could be no justification for investment if it might not even be seen. This is no longer an excuse not to improve. The plans are ambitious; starting with a new track layout, I only hope that Damon Hill has done his sums right - the last thing we need is for another Donnington scenario where there just isn't enough financial backing.

Who knows what happens to Donnington now; it looks like a building site - a job that can't be finished. There doesn't seem be any push to rectify the situation and with Moto GP now also being held at Silverstone it is really hard to see where the circuit goes from here. What a terrible outcome from another classic circuit. One can only hope that someone like (Brands Hatch owner) Jonathan Palmer rescues the situation and preserves another piece of British racing heritage.

As far as I understand, the Silverstone deal is worth about £12m per year until 2015 and then £16.5m thereafter. For the entire 17 years this works out at over £315m, before any money is spent on regeneration. That's a lot of money for a circuit that receives no financial backing from the government and whilst having the Moto GP will help, Bernie holds the right to all the advertisments at the circuit so that area brings no profit.

This means a couple of things: firstly (and most importantly) Bernie must think that this agreement is viable. Bernie has always stated that he wanted a British GP but he needed commitment that the circuit could hold its own against the ulta modern facilities of Singapore and Abu Dhabi. Secondly, Damon and the BRDC must think this is viable; they need to maximise their small profit margins and are therefore banking on sell out crowds despite the recession - consecutive British champions will help with this. Finally, the FIA must also want a race in Britain. This is a curious point as the decision is largely down to Ecclestone but if the rumours are to be believed (new FIA president) Jean Todt helped to fight for Silverstone. Todt is largely seen as a very closed and cold person so whether this was a leak to improve his profile or as some precursor to putting a similar deal in place for a race in (his native) France remains to be seen. Either way I am glad that he did what he did.

At the end of the day Silverstone is a classic, in my opinion it is a better Grand Prix venue than Donnington and has provided us with some absolutely brilliant races (think '03 and '08). Like the other circuits listed above, as a fan, I look forward to the British GP there is just something about it.

Thank you Bernie and Damon (and Jean) for letting the fans have what they want. Its almost like you have listened to us.

Childs Play

This week has seen young drivers who haven't yet had their chance in Formula 1 take to the wheels of some of the world's best cars, but were they any good? I'm going to assess who are the Hamiltons and who are the Scott Speeds and whether we are likely to see any of them again.

This was the final action of F1 2010. No cars will be seen testing again until the new year but this test wasn't about making strides with next year's car; it was (mostly) devoted to giving the 'stars of the future' their first steps into formula 1 around the Spanish Jerez circuit.

Lets take a look at the action team by team:

McLaren played it smart by letting regular tester Gary Paffett (a British DTM driver for Mercedes) do most of the work. This was technically allowed as Gary hasn't had an F1 drive but he was the most experienced driver out there over the 3 days. This told as he set top 3 times on each day and probably provided McLaren with a lot of valuable feedback. A regular third driver seat beckons for Paffett if De La Rosa gets a drive with one of the new teams but I can't see anything more for him. Oliver Turvey also got a few laps as prize for being the Autosport young driver of the year - its too early to tell whether we'll see him again.

Mercedes ran with (former Honda protegee) Mike Conway and Japanese F3 driver Marcus Ericsson. Neither driver performed brilliantly although Conway was praised by Ross Brawn for his technical feedback. This seemed like a test to tie up some more of Honda's loose ends.

Red Bull kept the same driver throughout; Daniel Ricciardo. The British F3 champion is the newest kid from the Red Bull young driver programme and he seems to be a bit of a whizz - today he was fastest by over a second! Don't be suprised to see him pop up in a Toro Rosso for 2010.

Ferrari made the biggest headlines of the week by signing their tester. The F3 Euroseries champion Jules Bianchi has committed to the team and will follow a development programme similar to Felipe Massa. This kid MUST be good. Apparently he has flown through the lower ranks, sweeping all before him. Next year he finds himself in GP2 driving for ART (the current champions), if this goes well he will be driving a Sauber (with Ferrari engines) in 2011 and then the sky is the limit. Seriously he could be the guy to bring the championship back to France. 2014 F1 World Champion with Ferrari?

They also let the top three of the Italian F3 series loose with the F60 but none impressed that much.

Williams spotted the same loophole as McLaren and therefore used this as a chance to give 2010 driver Nico Hulkenberg a few days to settle into the team. Much is expected of this boy and you can see how a few days now means that they can hit the ground running when testing starts in earnest after Christmas. They also gave Andy Soucek his first taste of F1 on Tuesday. This was as a prize for winning the F2 championship. Soucek showed well and even topped the timesheets but he only had one day in the car and so we will never know if it was a flash in the pan or genuine pace. One for the future me thinks.

This is the last time we will see the current BMW team on the timesheets. Despite already pulling out of F1, the team honoured promises made to junior drivers Alexander Rossi and Esteban Gutierrez. Neither driver performed that well but at least they got their chance. Unfortunately I can't see them becomming household names anytime soon.

Renault let long time junior driver Lucas Di Grassi and Formula Renault champion Bertrand Baguette (what a name) test. They were generally at the lower end of the time sheets but Di Grassi is optimistic of a drive with one of the new teams. We could see him in a Campos or Virgin car next year.

The most important tests of the week were going on at Force India where there was effectively a shootout going on between DTM driver Paul Di Resta and American J.R. Hilderbrand for the third seat at the team next year. This is important because if Sutil leaves at the end of 2010 (or Liuzzi doesn't improve) then there is a good chance that the third drive will turn into a race drive over the course of the next two years. It was good news from a British perspective as (Scot) Di Resta produced the 2nd, 4th and 2nd fastest times respectively over the three days. This is much better than Hildebrand's 10th, 8th, 10th. What's more, the fact that Di Resta delivered those times in a Force India makes him my driver of the week and I hope to see him racing soon.

Finally, Toro Rosso used this test in a similar way to Force India but as there seems to be an endless line of Red Bull backed drivers I think that it'll be hard for either Brendon Hartley or Mirko Bortolotti to muscle their way onto the grid. 3rd seat at Toro Rosso beckons for one but I can't say who.

In other news, Sauber has had their place on the 2010 grid confirmed - it seems that the FIA didn't want to wait for Toyota and so the Japanese will have to pay the penalty.

Renault have made further strides towards a move away from F1 but I think that they'll only do so if they can find a buyer. If not then they might still be on the grid next year. I wonder what Kubica thinks of this; if Renault pull out then he could be in the frame at Mercedes...