Forza Ferrari!?

The Bahrain Grand Prix seems a long time ago now. I can barely remember what happened (or didn’t happen) in the desert back in March and after that race no one would have predicted 5 different winners, all of them now ving neck and neck, seemingly racing within a couple seconds of each other race after race.

Canada typified this trend; as I said before the battle is between the two McLarens, the two Red Bulls and Fernando Alonso. Others like Kubica, Massa, Rosberg and Schumi could all have a say (or even win races themselves before the season is out) but I think that the top five all have a steely determination and intensity that the others seem to be lacking.

It is credit to Ferrari and McLaren that they have closed in on the Red Bulls and it seems that whilst the team from Milton Keynes still has the best all round package they might regret that they didn’t follow Brawn’s 2009 example and make hay whilst the sun shone.

Valencia will go a long way to shaping how the 2010 season will finish. If Lewis Hamilton becomes the first driver of 2010 to complete a hat-trick of wins (particularly as they would be back to back) then you would have to wonder how the others would stifle such momentum. Similarly, if Red Bull bounce back and secure a 1-2 around a street circuit which caused them a lot of problems last year then the other teams might start to fear them once again. However, as much as I like and support the British super-team at McLaren, I think that I will be cheering Alonso this weekend. To my mind, Fernando has kept himself unnoticed in the title race this year but he does pose a huge threat (and he was my pre-season prediction). He could have won in Australia if he hadn’t been shunted in the first lap and he was really on it in Monaco until he decided to reshape his Ferrari in 3rd practice. Moreover, he finished second around Barcelona (let’s not forget that Red Bull’s advantage was about 0.7s per lap around there) and he could well have won in Canada had the traffic been more favourable.

Ferrari are also bringing a much improved F10 to Valencia where they hope that their Red Bull inspired exhaust system (where it feeds into the diffuser to increase downforce) will see them run even closer to the front. It is crucial that they succeed – McLaren, Mercedes and Renault are all rumoured to be bringing their versions to Silverstone in a couple of weeks.

The next few races could therefore prove to be a turning point; one where Red Bull’s advantage is eroded fully and parity is found. For one, I hope this is true – there were 6 different winners in 2009 but I would happily watch 5 drivers share the wins as evenly as possible and take the title to the wire. This weekend though, my money is on Ferrari and if I was a betting man I may even have a small wager on Massa (despite what I have just written). If the Ferrari proves to be fast then Massa can win (he did so at the inaugural race at Valencia in 2008). He might need a little luck but you never know...