The Final Word - Australia Race Report

The streets of Albert Park rarely fail to deliver an entertaining and exiting race and this was no exception as the Australian grand prix rewarded all those who awoke early; providing the perfect remedy to banish the Bahrain blues.

There has been a lot said about how F1 should make sweeping, rapid changes to spice up the show. Everyone from drivers, team bosses, engineers, pundits and even (occasionally) fans have had their say but only the sensible people are reserving judgement for when we are a few races into the season. To put it simply, Melbourne doesn't do boring. If this race had turned into a snooze-fest then panic buttons could have been pressed but from the off you just knew it was going to be a classic.

The reason this circuit brings the racer out in everyone is that it is a track which doesn't benefit one type of car over any other; it is all medium speed so being able to cope with fast, flowing corners isn't a necessity but the car doesn't need to be nimble and ultra grippy either. There are walls but not as close as in Monaco, Montreal, Singapore or Valencia - a factor which means that the driver is never scared to go full-pelt. The track is only temporary; a feature which means that the grip is harder to find at the start of the weekend and the temperature isn't too hot either (it is autumn over there) meaning that being ultra kind on your tyres isn't a prerequisite and being too hard on them isn't badly punished either. All of this makes for a situation where it is never too difficult for any driver to find the sweet-spot of their car; giving them enough confidence to try and overtake.

The Red Bulls predictably filled the front row of the grid; there is no doubt that this car is the best in the field at the moment - just look at Vettels pole lap; there will not be a better show of how to hustle a car than that all year. For every ounce of aggression Seb gave it, every bump that he rode and curb that he bounced over, Lucious Liz delivered only sheer speed - the young German was never going to be beaten to pole. Such is the order at the moment it was no surprise to see Alonso in 3rd in his Ferrari and Massa probably should have been fourth but seemed overly conservative. Felipe has a poor record in Melbourne and probably just wanted a smooth and simple weekend ending in lots of points - he didn't really want to have to race for them. This left the door open for Button to steal fourth in his McLaren. The Mercedes were next up in 6th and 7th with Rosberg making it 2-0 over Schumi. The only name missing from this list? Lewis Hamilton. Lewis suffered a tyre pressure problem in quali 2 which put him out of sync with the other front runners and on worn out tyres when he needed some fresh rubber to see him through - P11 on the grid was not what he expected after an encouraging (if fortuitous) podium in Bahrain.

It must be remembered that between qualifying and the race the cars are filled to the brim with fuel, this means that the breaking points change overnight, making the first corner particularly treacherous. Australia decided to throw another ingredient into the pot though - rain; just a sprinkling, stopping within a few laps but it was enough to ensure that starting on the intermediate tyres was a must. Now the drivers had the extra challenge of stopping their heavy cars on a very slippery track; a crash was surely inevitable. So it proved, a coming together between Button and Alonso left both running but the latter had spun and was now well down the order. Jenson didn't lose too much in the incident - falling only as far as 6th but it put the fast-starting Hamilton right on his tail and the even faster starting Kubica up to 4th. Massa had also had a good start; hooking the Ferrari up perfectly to launch himself from 5th to 2nd. Further back F1 2010 enjoyed its first proper crash; the Sauber of Kamui Kobayashi launching into the side of Nico Hulkenberg's Williams after it lost its front wing. This wasn't the first time that Kobayashi had suffered a loss of wing this weekend and one wonders whether they were caused by technical or driver faults - he certainly hasn't looked as impressive as he did in those late races in 2009. Time for the safety car to make its first appearance.

Vettel caught Massa napping at the restart and it wasn't long before Webber had reformed the Red Bull 1-2. Kubica and Rosberg held their positions in 4th and 5th respectively leaving the McLarens to have their first in-house fight of the season. Round 1 went to Hamilton; the pass was easy. Button was struggling on the intermediates and knew it. He didn't really have a choice, he had to roll the dice; there was no way that he could let Lewis embarrass him - something that would have happened had he stayed out. He pitted and went for the slicks, he thought that there was enough of a dry line - he was right. He tiptoed around the first few corners; learning where the grip level was (even taking a grassy detour in the process) but by the end of the lap he was faster than anything else out there by a mile. Suddenly there was a rush; almost everyone else pitted and while they tripped over each other in the extremely slow pitlane Jenson cruised past them all. All except Vettel that is; the Red Bull was so good that he managed to pit and return in front of the McLaren. Still, rolling the dice had given Jenson a net 2nd - he was 7th before the gamble. It is no surprise that Vettel started to pull away from Button; the Red Bull was giving him so much performance that it was inviting him to push harder and harder. Jenson didn't worry though; he had seen this in Bahrain - the Red Bull started well but things closed up as the fuel burnt all he had to do was manage the tyres and see how things played out. As it turned out, Bahrain was mirrored all too well as another mechanical problem deprived Vettel of a probable win; this time it was the breaks and it was terminal. Jenson was leading.

Having Kubica and Massa 2nd and 3rd helped Button; he could pull away from them without pushing too hard and they would also act as a buffer should the faster Alonso, Hamilton or Webber manage to catch up.

Catch up they did; the slicks seemed to be working well for all of them. Lewis, Mark and Fernando almost followed each other through the field overtaking at will until they reached Massa. Hamilton and Webber got by and Lewis was quickly onto the back of Kubica's Renault. At this stage Lewis was seriously quick; he could smell a McLaren victory and wanted to make sure that it was him. However, Kubica is made of stern stuff and had saved his tyres well - he could keep Lewis at bay. At the same time, Jenson responded. Now over the graining phase of the slicks, he was Prost-like in his metronomic lapping - every time he circulated he got faster and faster. It was a message: Lewis Hamilton, I am no push-over, 1-1. Now it was Hamilton's turn to roll the dice, pitting for fresh rubber in the hope that he could catch his team-mate or at least get past Kubica. The trouble is that where everyone copied Jenson, only Webber copied Lewis. The Ferraris fancied their chances of holding their positions in 3rd and 4th, likewise Renault. The pace of the now light McLaren and Red Bull was astonishing as they forged their way back to the leading pack but once there they only met Fernando's Ferrari. Had they cleared him they would have got Massa and Kubica too but Alonso is a double world Champ and wouldn't let them past. Lewis's gamble hadn't paid off, neither had Webber's. Mark was desperate to impress on home soil but a weekend that promised so much ended badly for both him and Lewis as the Red Bull and McLaren collided late on.

Championships are not won this early in the season but they can certainly be lost. Red Bull clearly have a pace advantage over the field but yet they have 18 points compared to Ferrari's 70! McLaren will be the most satisfied though; they are mopping up the points gifted by the Bulls and staying in the hunt with a car that clearly isn't the best. In particular though, Jenson Button will gain a lot of credibility from rolling the dice and making the strategy work; only a Champion could do that.

***

A quick mention of a few other stars of this race:

- Lotus for once again being the best of the newbies,

- Karun Chandhok for registering Hispania's first race finish,

- Vitantonio Liuzzi for again scoring in the Force India,

- Jamie Aluersuari for giving his best performance in F1; fighting tooth and nail with one M. Schumacher

- Lucas di Grassi for compounding Schumi's lacklustre day when he overtook him in the Virgin car; something to give any F1 neutral something to smile about.

Australian Grand Prix Result

Fastest Lap: Mark Webber - 1:28.358

The Final Word - Bahrain Race Report

Bahrain may not have been the race that we all hoped for, but it has paved the way for an extremely intriguing season. Finally, we have an idea of the pecking order and have seen a Champion ominously finding his form in Ferrari red.

Fernando Alonso has been here before, twice. In 2005 he was partnered by the determined Giancarlo Fisichella at Renault. At the time they had both won 1 race (Alonso in Hungary 2003, Fisi in Brazil 2003) and both came into the season optimistic of mounting a title charge. Alonso had qualifying troubles in the season opening race which left the door open for a Fisi win, but the Spaniard soon turned it around and the world title duly followed. Fisi was left in his tracks, weak by comparison – he made it easy for Fernando.
Then came 2007; (double and reigning world champ) Alonso partnering (rookie) Hamilton. Fernando was expecting to dominate; he probably didn’t respect his team-mate enough - Lewis isn’t Giancarlo. Fernando lost his temper (and his form) and looked a shadow of himself at the season-ending GP (where he still had a chance at the title); finishing a distant third.

So, to 2010. Facing the challenge of partnering Felipe Massa (a person who could have won the 2008 title) at Ferrari, Alonso needed to lay down an early marker. He needed to send a message to the grid that he will be a force this year, a message to the team that they were right to trade in Kimi Raikkonen for him, and a message to Massa that HE is the top dog at Ferrari.

The Kingdom of Bahrain, keen to show that it is the best circuit in the Middle-East (and therefore better that neighbour Abu Dhabi), would play host to this hotly anticipated race. The stage was set.

Everyone expected a frantic race with 8 drivers all vying for the win, and the cagy affair of practice did nothing to quash this expectation. The McLarens showed well all Friday; gaining an extra 5mph from their ingenious “F-vent” system which reduces downforce (and drag) along the straight. Mercedes too hinted that their pace was stronger than during winter testing. Rosberg starred; consistently about half a second ahead of illustrious team-mate Schumacher. Alonso didn’t panic; he knew that the F60 would be more than a match for the best of Britain and Germany. He hinted as much with the fastest lap in Saturday practice – he was confident of pole.

However, he had overlooked the Red Bull – we had all overlooked the Red Bull. The Austrian team had quietly gone about their business all weekend; not starring, just being professional. It was a mistake to overlook them; Vettel took pole position and never looked like he was going to be beaten to it. Fernando, trying to better the German, overreached and ended up third (behind team-mate Massa) – would this be a repeat of 2005 or 2007? Webber could have been in the mix too but (as was often the case last year) couldn’t quite extract enough from his car and ended up 6th. No one else came close. The Mercedes and (in particular) McLaren struggled with the new-look sector 2 leaving them over a second behind the Prancing Horses and Raging Bull.

The first corner of the race was always going to be interesting; who would pick their braking point correctly and who would be too cautious with a full tank of fuel? Fernando, aware that the Red Bull was expected to be harsh on its tyres knew that all he had to do was to overtake his team-mate and take advantage when the Red Bull dropped its pace. Turn 1, objective 1 complete. A neat pass around the outside of the corner, holding his line for turn 2 saw the Spaniard into second and now favourite for the race. Behind him, smoke from Mark Webber left Kubica in a spin (a position he did well to finish 11th from) but positions were largely held – the tone was set. Vettel was imperious on the soft tyres. Luscious Liz (Seb’s Car) caressed them, treating them as if this was a Sunday cruise rather than a Grand Prix – the Red Bull was most definitely NOT hard on its rubber, this was ominous (and not what Fernando expected) By the time of the first pit stop, Vettel was far enough ahead to hold onto his lead despite stopping after the Ferrari. However, in a complete reversal to 2009, the Red Bull seemed too soft on its tyres and couldn’t get the most out of the medium compound. Alonso, with a Ferrari as consistently fast on medium as it was on the soft closed; the race got interesting. However, F1 2010 doesn’t seem to equate to overtaking; Fernando got close but couldn’t make a move – it was a story repeated by many drivers after the race.

It looked like the Red Bull would hang on for victory, Alonso dropped back to conserve his tyres/engine – hoping to make a late charge when the lower fuel would have helped him. There was no need. A spark-plug problem left Luscious Liz limping and gave Alonso the opportunity to send out his message to the field. The Ferraris were separated by about 1 second after they had both overtaken Vettel but within two laps that gap had grown to 5 seconds. Alonso had just taken 2 seconds a lap out of his team-mate! The message was clear, this was not a gifted win; Alonso wanted everyone to know that he would have won anyway, that no one is going to stop him this year.

Just imagine if he had started on pole...

Lewis Hamilton had a quiet race really, benefitting from Vettel’s woes to pip him to third. McLaren won’t be pleased with this weekend; they were meant to be challenging for the victory but ended third best. The MP4-25 seemed quick around the fast corners (and obviously the straights) but clumsy and unsettled in the fiddly part of the lap. It also worked the soft tyres too hard (which Button claims made him drive too conservatively at the start of the race), but the car performed well on the medium tyre. Expect them to struggle again in Melbourne but they should come good at the faster circuits; Montreal, Silverstone, Spa, Monza and Suzuka.

Mercedes were expecting to be the fourth fastest team and were proved correct, finishing 5th and 6th. Rosberg outperformed Schumi but you get the feeling that both were slower than Button (7th) and all three were slower than Webber (8th). Let’s hope that the amount of overtaking improves soon.

Liuzzi did well to finish 9th for Force India which makes you wonder how well Sutil could have done from 10th on the grid. Barrichello also gets credit for finishing in the points in 10th. Lotus should also get praise for seeing both cars through to the finish, a feat which made them firmly the best of the new teams this week.

So, what have we learnt?

The Ferrari and Red Bull are the class of the field with the McLaren and Mercedes just behind. Force India, Williams and Renault are then in a fight for best of the rest. Contrary to predictions, Sauber were nowhere – a result I find most disappointing and doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season.

As for the amount of overtaking? This will improve as teams start to get used to how the races pan out, but I fear that having one pit-stop and extremely developed diffusers has made it too hard to pass on or off of the track.

Next up Australia; I think that the street-like nature and therefore use of soft tyres will favour the Red Bull. Could we see Mark Webber win his home race? It would be a popular victory and a good news story (even if the race is boring) but I can’t bet against Alonso – would you after this race?

Bahrain Grand Prix 2010 - Race Result

Fastest Lap: Fernando Alonso - 1:58.287

Mat F1's (very) Big Prediction Post.

4 into 1 doesn’t go, 8 into 1 definitely doesn’t go. However, since the end of testing just over a week or two ago, I have read/watched/heard numerous opinions on which team and driver will prevail in 2010. Ferrari, McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull all have reason to feel that this could be their year – and that means 8 drivers who all believe that they could be champion at the end (four of whom know they can do it – having managed it previously). Beyond this, I would say that there are another 5 teams who believe that they can be a thorn in the side of the ‘big four’ – they are all hoping for podiums and some even feel that a win or two isn’t beyond them. Finally, there are the new teams who effectively have a championship of their own to fight for; being top of the newbies could be the difference between survival and death for these (financially restricted) fledgling outfits.


So where would I put my money for the opening race this weekend and the championship ahead?


The Favourites
The champion elect is sitting in one of the cars numbered 1-8, of this I am certain. Other teams may have phases of increased competitiveness but I think that these teams are the only ones with a fast enough ‘base’ car and aggressive enough development programme to challenge consistently.

Ferrari showed its pace from the off; nobody got close in Valencia. It seems that this car is easy to set up, consistent on its tyres, extremely aerodynamically efficient and most importantly predictable to drive. I expect them to run well at all types of circuit and it almost seems like they are refreshed after a year where they didn’t have to fight to the end. Michael Schumacher’s switch to Mercedes may prove a blessing in disguise as it gives Alonso chance to create his own legacy free of the shadow Kimi Raikkonen had to live with for the last few years (could this be why he didn’t perform?) and it will give the whole team further motivation to beat the Silver Arrows. Don’t underestimate Massa though. Whilst I don’t think the Alonso/Hamilton fireworks of 2007 will be replicated with Massa, he has more than enough pace to trouble Alonso and let us not forget that in 2008 he won the most races and arguably deserved the title as much as Hamilton. This could mean that he takes a lot of points from his team mate which would hamper both of their title chances.

Hamilton was galvanised last year; faced with the worst car of his career he still managed to win 2 races by the end and enjoyed being a champion without pressure. However, he was only able to do that because McLaren did what they do best – develop aggressively. This isn’t the first time that the team have turned a mongrel into a thoroughbred (2004 springs to mind) – no other team has such a strong development process and with a car that looks to be a good baseline package they are going to be tough to beat this year. The MP4-25 is the most striking of the ‘big four’ and if its performance at Valencia was underwhelming, the updates at Barcelona spoke for themselves as Hamilton topped the tables and got a few jealous looks for his long run pace too. With the question of rear wing legality now gone, we know that this pace was genuine and not about to be removed. As for Jenson Button, the reigning champion will have to fight to retain his crown but few people think that he can beat Hamilton so maybe he will thrive without that expectation. It will be close between these two; they are both champions for a reason and it won’t be beyond them that one of them could join an elite group of multiple champions this year and therefore truly make themselves a legend.

Talking of which, when Norbert Haug promised us a surprise partner for Nico Rosberg at Mercedes, few people actually expected Schumi to return after a 3 year break. How wrong we were. It seems that the lure of working with Ross Brawn in the reigning champion constructor was too strong for the record breaking German. His current tally is 91 wins, who would bet against him reaching 100? Nico is no slouch either – honed after 4 years at Williams (in largely sub-par cars), the son of the 1982 champion Keke must now seize the opportunity of a fast car or fear becoming his generation’s Heidfeld/Trulli/Fisichella. First though, this German team must create a winning car. The W01 seemed a little behind the rest of the ‘big four’ in testing, and they have been quick to play down their chances in the opening GPs. Certainly the car doesn’t look as good (aesthetically) as the other three (or even its predecessor; the Brawn GP 001) but rumours persist about a ‘super diffuser’ update that will be used this weekend. If there is one team that knows how to design a diffuser it is this one so I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear a memorable version of Deutschland über alles come Sunday afternoon… watch this space.

We could be hearing Germany above all for another reason though. F1’s youngest winner and Bernie Eccleston favorite, Sebastian Vettel could easily have led Red Bull to their maiden titles last year had they not given Brawn such a head start. In any case, the RB5 ended as the fastest car in 2009 which is why many teams have used it as inspiration for their 2010 cars. With more static rules and a fantastic benchmark, a lot is expected of the RB6 and so far the signs are good. They may not have stolen the headlines in testing but some of the drivers have been quoted as saying that the Red Bull was the only car that could take Barcelona’s fast right hander (turn 3/4 I think) flat out – this hints that the car is generating a very large amount of grip and is therefore the strongest aerodynamically. There is also talk that Red Bull never truly showed it’s hand; running with more fuel than it needed throughout the tests. If both of these prove true then the performance is ominous. The team is the only one of the top four that hasn’t won a title and doesn’t have a champion driver but if either Vettel (who has the potential and time to be greater than Schumi) or Webber (hungry to make the most of what could be his last chance at a title) win this year they would surly be deserving. There is one minor blot though; Adrian Newey is probably the best designer out there but his cars always seem to be flawed geniuses (think 2005 McLaren – beautiful but fragile). The RB6 is an evolution of last year’s car but this means that it works its tyres harder than its competitors – this was a good feature in Silverstone and Germany last year (and certainly helped them with qualifying) but not in the age of heavy fuel. If the tyre wear proves to be too great then we could find that the team is unable to qualify in an optimum position which could very much harm their race.

The Dark Horses

Renault has fallen from grace; their championship winning years of 2005 & 2006 seem a long time ago and now their star (Fernando Alonso) has moved to Ferrari. The problem is that Renault was so in tune with the Michelin tyre of ’06 that they never coped with changing to Bridgestone. Then came crash-gate and the subsequent fallout (including Renault withdrawing 75% of their stake in the team) – not to mention that the 2009 car was ugly as sin, and just as fast. A fresh start is needed. Robert Kubica is a rapid, if not quite as complete replacement for Alonso and steps into an environment where he is expected to lead the team. There is no hiding it; Petrov really is just there for the sponsorship he brings. However, the car has had an auspicious start. It has never really looked like a potential winner but having said that, team Principal Eric Boullier let slip that they were running heavy. This car could have hidden speed but I remain skeptical. I do hope that they can build toward better things in 2011 – I expect a steady, consistent improvement throughout the year (especially if teams like Sauber, Williams and Force India drop off) and this could lead to podiums and a platform of a brighter future.

If BMW hadn’t pulled out and kept up the development of this year’s car then they could have been on for something special. The Sauber has been very fast; producing competitive laps at most of the tests. Drivers Pedro de la Rosa and Kamui Kobayashi report that the car is very kind on its tyres – a feature that could see it do very well on a Saturday (they will be able to qualify on the softer and therefore quicker tyres). Question marks remain over the long pace of the car but I expect them to cause problems for any big team that drops the ball in the early part of the season. The biggest worry that I have for Sauber is that they won’t be able to keep up with the development race; they must be on a very tight budget considering that there are no sponsors on the car. I hope that they perform well this year if simply to keep them on the grid for 2011 and beyond – expect a lot of glory runs in qualifying to try and drum up some money. There is one more positive though; Sauber has car number 22 – this is becoming F1’s lucky number after winning the title for the last two years...

I’ve not seen Williams talk themselves up quite this much for a long time. Mind you, last year’s car was better than its championship position let on – if only Kazuki Nakijima had scored some points! Their driver pairing is good though; Barrichello will bring some much needed development experience to the team which should mean constant beneficial upgrades. Hulkenberg arrives after a season in GP2 where he dominated more than Hamilton. This kid has got something. Testing has been mixed for the team but it seems that the car really does have some pace. I said in my first blog prediction that Williams will win a race this year. I certainly think that they are my favorites for 5th in the constructors table (I think they will out-develop Sauber) and therefore ready maximize an opportunity if it is presented. Watch out for Hulkenberg in the rain.

I like Force India and their car seems to be the best they (in any guise) have produced for about 10 years. It is unlucky that they have chosen a year where the midfield is extremely crowded to make it. They have set 6th as their championship target but that would mean beating two of the midfield heavyweights (Williams, Renault and Sauber). I just can’t see them doing it; they could, but they could equally finish 8th. It will depend on circumstantial events like picking up big points in bad weather. The technical partnership with McLaren will surely help though.

This is all assuming that Toro Rosso finishes 9th. It looks like the natural choice; they were last in 2009 when they were effectively running the best car on the grid so how are they going to do any better than beat the new teams now that they have to design their own car? I think that they will finish 9th but I think that they will qualify respectably throughout the year. They certainly seem able to extract some quick laps from the car but my question is over the longevity of their pace and this is something the rest of the top 8 will be able to improve more efficiently.

The Wishful Thinkers

The fact that USF1 failed to make the grid means that my prediction of them being pointless has come true. Honestly though, with the quality of the established teams I think that all of the new guys will struggle. They really will be in a championship of their own – it is going to take 9 retirements for a new car to score if the pace that they were running in testing is their limit (and assuming that Hispania are similarly slow). Having said that, these teams must be respected for achieving to make cars that are only five seconds a lap slower than established teams’ considering they have been put together in about 6-8 months.

The Virgin car was the first to be launched and they have taken the pioneering route into entering the big-time. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) as a tool for aerodynamic design is definitely powerful but it will be interesting to see how it fares against the teams who have used a mix of CFD and a wind-tunnel. If testing is anything to go by they are going to struggle to reach the end of a race – I fear that there are lots of mechanical issues that must be addressed before the pace is improved. The car is pretty though and I think the team brings some character to the grid. I wish them (and lead driver Timo Glock) well.

Lotus has won 79 races in F1. I think it might stay that way for a while; they made it to testing despite being the last team confirmed for the grid, they have a good technical staff (a lot ex-Toyota) who should keep this team moving forward and they do seem financially stable but the car is slow. Out of the box it was slower than the Virgin and it does look boxy. However, as I said they are the new team most likely to improve over the year and they have two drivers who have won races and have something to prove. Furthermore, this car does seem more reliable than the Virgin which will mean that it is the most likely to profit should carnage occur further up the field. They are my prediction for top of the new teams.

Who knows what will happen with Hispania; the car looks quite nice and I really want to see if Bruno can make the Senna name win again but it won’t happen this year. I fear that they simply won’t have the funds to develop and they will therefore miss out entirely. This team looks like its heading the way of Midland and Spyker.

The Final Verdict

After assessing all of the form I find it hard to pick a winner. 8 drivers should win races this year – I can’t see anyone dominating. This year could be decided by the drivers and not the cars (that would be unusual) but maybe by luck. However, if I had to put money on it I would go for Alonso; I think the Ferrari will get off to a good start and he will do the rest. I predict a Williams win (somewhere like Canada) and strong early showings from Sauber (particularly in the Australian GP where it pays to be really soft on the tyres and accidents often happen). I think that Lotus will finish top of the new teams but they won’t start as the best (Hispania could surprise us there). Finally, I think that my disappointment of the season will be Renault – I can’t see them doing as well as they want.

Driver’s Championship top 3:

Alonso, Hamilton, Vettel

Constructor’s Championship table

1. McLaren                 7. Force India

2. Ferrari                     8. Renault

3. Red Bull                  9. Toro Rosso

4. Mercedes              10. Lotus

5. Williams                 11. Hispania

6. Sauber                   12. Virgin

Bahrain Top 3:

Alonso, Hamilton, Button

The Final Grid... With 7 Days to Spare!

The FIA have finally announced the completed line-up for 2010. It tells the story of how the grid has been shaken to the core - only 6 teams have the same name/engine as last year and one of my original predictions has already come true.

Firstly, let me discuss Hispania Racing Team (HRT - no jokes please). Born from the struggling Campos effort, this team launched last Thursday and most people involved breathed a heavy sigh of relief. What I want to know is how it ended up like this? Campos was one of the first new teams to get the green light for this season and so they have had the longest to put together a viable package. Furthermore, 6 months ago I would have tipped them to be the best of the new teams because their heritage is in GP2 (one step below F1) and so they should have a good idea how to bring a team package together. Also, the car that they would be using would be designed and built by Dallara using established techniques in a wind tunnel. It really seemed that beating Virgin (who have taken the CFD only route to designing a car), Lotus (who were announced late and so had less time to build a car) and USF1 (all talk and no trousers) would be simple. 6 months later USF1 has been put on hold (although I doubt that they will make it at all), and Virgin and Lotus have spent at least 2 tests running their car on the road valuable development miles that could give them an unassailable head start in a season of limited testing. Meanwhile, Campos has been sold to Jose Ramon Carabante and re-branded HRT.

 

However, they do have a car and apparently are good to go in Bahrain.

The pictures that I have seen of the car show it to be quite sleek and tidy; definitely more of the Ferrari than the Lotus - especially around the sidepod area. What also bodes well is that the front wing has been developed, a noticeable feature that the Virgin car was lacking at its launch. The colour scheme is ok but reminds me a little too much of the Midland from 2006 - ironically Colin Kolles was that team's boss too.

The problem I have with this team is that they lack a bit of character. You would expect Latin flare and fun but it all seems a bit drab and dull - certainly there isn't the interest (from my point of view at least) as there is with Virgin and Lotus. Having said that, they have an intriguing (if inexperienced) driver pairing of Bruno Senna and Karun Chandhok - these two have been team mates before (in GP2) and they both carry high expectation (because of their name and nationality respectively).

I expect HRT to struggle at the start - mechanical failures could be plenty as they optimise the car. However, by the mid season I think that they could push themselves ahead of the other new teams; aerodynamically the car seems the most balanced of the three and they will get used to race strategies and tyre wear the more that they run. We won't know for another week though but you can be sure that no team will be using Friday free practice in Bahrain more them.

***

So Hispania come in and take car numbers 20 & 21 as planned. Sauber replace USF1 with cars 22 & 23 and Stepan GP is denied even a sniff of the grid.

The Stepan situation is a strange one; they are race ready with a car and technical staff fit to go. What's more, the car is probably quite good (as it was designed and made by Toyota) and there is space on the grid now that USF1 aren't going to be there. However, Bernie Eccleston doesn't seem to ever have been keen on allowing them a place - which probably means he has a better (for him) situation lined up. It is quite clear that 13 teams is the limit that was ever going to get agreement from the other teams (fewer teams = bigger share of the revenue for each) and as the American entry has only been deferred to 2011 then the grid should be complete next year. If Stepan are allowed entry then it would be really difficult to honour the USF1 deferral and keep only 13 teams. This doesn't seem like Bernie though. I would have expected him to tell USF1 where to go and allowed Stepan to Step-in (sorry). So why isn't this the case?

Where Bernie is concerned there must be a bigger picture that we cannot see. In my mind there are three possibilities:

1. Mr E. is being paid by USF1 to keep them a place on the grid.

2. Mr E. would rather have another audition for the final grid slot so that he can broker the best deal. This could mean either selecting the team most suitable or the one that will earn him the most money.

3. Mr E. needs USF1 because Mr E would like to have a race in America again soon. American team = American interest (especially if they have an American driver) = Americans starting to like F1 more = Americans wanting a race = more money for Bernie.

Personally, I think all three are probably true. Bernie is probably being paid a retainer by USF1 but if they are still in disarray in October then number 2 could be put into action where Stepan could put their team forward along with other potential options like Prodrive (or maybe even another manufacturer if the financial situation makes it appealing by then). However, if USF1 do make it onto the grid in 2011 then don't be surprised if the USA returns to the racing calendar in 2012/13.