How Monaco Could Cause an Upset...

I've said it for some time and today I put my money where my mouth is; I think that Renault could win in Monaco. You may say that with the dominance of the front runners (in particular Red Bull in qualifying) that a bet on the team currently placed 5th is just a waste of money but there are a few reasons why it may not be such a stupid bet:

- Firstly, qualifying is going to be...interesting. Bruno Senna mooted the idea of splitting quali 1 so that the front runners don't have to worry about the new boys (who will probably make up the last 6 places on the grid) and so that the new teams themselves can actually get a clean lap rather than spending the whole time looking in their mirrors. Luckily, this idea wasn't passed and everyone will take to the track. I'm willing to bet that someone will get it wrong and not manage to find a clear lap to set a time. This could just as easily be a McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull or Mercedes as a Williams or Sauber.  

- Secondly, the weather. Early reports show signs of rain for most of this week and if that is continued into the race then there could be carnage - not all of the top cars will survive. Guaranteed. This is the reason why a cheeky Adrian Sutil podium bet might be worth a shout - remember his wet practice lap in 2007 and how he managed to get up to 4th in the wet in 2008 (before Kimi Raikkonen crashed into him)?

- Next, rookies and bad handling cars - even if it is dry I think that at least one will crash which will lead to a safety car. This could bring strategy into it.

- Performance is often a lot leveller at Monaco - a circuit where as much grip needs to be generated as possible but there are no fast, sweeping corners to test the car to the full and the lower speeds mean that the cars don't tend to generate as much aerodynamic grip anyway. This should mean that Red Bull's advantage (if they have one) is not as big.

- Tyre performance; whilst Spain has shown Red Bull making gains in this area, if they turn out to be working the tyres too much then they will suffer by the end.

- Short (relatively anyway) wheelbase. This is a feature that isn't really noticed on the Renault car but it isn't as long as the big teams - in particular Ferrari and McLaren and this will surely make it more nimble in the tight, twisty corners.

- Good traction. This is something that I have noticed with the Renault and it is something they used to be very good at in 2003/4; they seem to have good traction out of the corners. This will help if it is true.

- Efficient engine. I have already said how important tyre wear is and the fact that the Renault engine is so efficient means that they have to carry less fuel at the start of the race. This means less strain on the tyres.

- Robert Kubica is driving as well as ever and seems determined to either bring Renault back to the top or set himself up for a Ferrari seat in 2011. He also finished second here in 2008 (in the wet).

- Fianlly, a rookie team mate. If all else fails, get Petrov to crash just after Kubica pits to trigger a safety car and hand the win to the Pole...maybe this is a little cynical?

So, as you can see, there is such a long list that I'm practically certain of a return on my money. The only thing missing was experience which is why a bet on Williams's Rubens Barrichello (at 200:1) is worth a go - if just for the podium. If this happens then it would also make good my prediction of a Williams win (something which isn't looking like the best shout I've ever made). Having said that, I really do feel that Renault could shine. Watch this space.