So where would I put my money for the opening race this weekend and the championship ahead?
The Favourites
The champion elect is sitting in one of the cars numbered 1-8, of this I am certain. Other teams may have phases of increased competitiveness but I think that these teams are the only ones with a fast enough ‘base’ car and aggressive enough development programme to challenge consistently.
Hamilton was galvanised last year; faced with the worst car of his career he still managed to win 2 races by the end and enjoyed being a champion without pressure. However, he was only able to do that because McLaren did what they do best – develop aggressively. This isn’t the first time that the team have turned a mongrel into a thoroughbred (2004 springs to mind) – no other team has such a strong development process and with a car that looks to be a good baseline package they are going to be tough to beat this year. The MP4-25 is the most striking of the ‘big four’ and if its performance at Valencia was underwhelming, the updates at Barcelona spoke for themselves as Hamilton topped the tables and got a few jealous looks for his long run pace too. With the question of rear wing legality now gone, we know that this pace was genuine and not about to be removed. As for Jenson Button, the reigning champion will have to fight to retain his crown but few people think that he can beat Hamilton so maybe he will thrive without that expectation. It will be close between these two; they are both champions for a reason and it won’t be beyond them that one of them could join an elite group of multiple champions this year and therefore truly make themselves a legend. 
Talking of which, when Norbert Haug promised us a surprise partner for Nico Rosberg at Mercedes, few people actually expected Schumi to return after a 3 year break. How wrong we were. It seems that the lure of working with Ross Brawn in the reigning champion constructor was too strong for the record breaking German. His current tally is 91 wins, who would bet against him reaching 100? Nico is no slouch either – honed after 4 years at Williams (in largely sub-par cars), the son of the 1982 champion Keke must now seize the opportunity of a fast car or fear becoming his generation’s Heidfeld/Trulli/Fisichella. First though, this German team must create a winning car. The W01 seemed a little behind the rest of the ‘big four’ in testing, and they have been quick to play down their chances in the opening GPs. Certainly the car doesn’t look as good (aesthetically) as the other three (or even its predecessor; the Brawn GP 001) but rumours persist about a ‘super diffuser’ update that will be used this weekend. If there is one team that knows how to design a diffuser it is this one so I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear a memorable version of Deutschland über alles come Sunday afternoon… watch this space.
We could be hearing Germany above all for another reason though. F1’s youngest winner and Bernie Eccleston favorite, Sebastian Vettel could easily have led Red Bull to their maiden titles last year had they not given Brawn such a head start. In any case, the RB5 ended as the fastest car in 2009 which is why many teams have used it as inspiration for their 2010 cars. With more static rules and a fantastic benchmark, a lot is expected of the RB6 and so far the signs are good. They may not have stolen the headlines in testing but some of the drivers have been quoted as saying that the Red Bull was the only car that could take Barcelona’s fast right hander (turn 3/4 I think) flat out – this hints that the car is generating a very large amount of grip and is therefore the strongest aerodynamically. There is also talk that Red Bull never truly showed it’s hand; running with more fuel than it needed throughout the tests. If both of these prove true then the performance is ominous. The team is the only one of the top four that hasn’t won a title and doesn’t have a champion driver but if either Vettel (who has the potential and time to be greater than Schumi) or Webber (hungry to make the most of what could be his last chance at a title) win this year they would surly be deserving. There is one minor blot though; Adrian Newey is probably the best designer out there but his cars always seem to be flawed geniuses (think 2005 McLaren – beautiful but fragile). The RB6 is an evolution of last year’s car but this means that it works its tyres harder than its competitors – this was a good feature in Silverstone and Germany last year (and certainly helped them with qualifying) but not in the age of heavy fuel. If the tyre wear proves to be too great then we could find that the team is unable to qualify in an optimum position which could very much harm their race.
The Dark Horses
Renault has fallen from grace; their championship winning years of 2005 & 2006 seem a long time ago and now their star (Fernando Alonso) has moved to Ferrari. The problem is that Renault was so in tune with the Michelin tyre of ’06 that they never coped with changing to Bridgestone. Then came crash-gate and the subsequent fallout (including Renault withdrawing 75% of their stake in the team) – not to mention that the 2009 car was ugly as sin, and just as fast. A fresh start is needed. Robert Kubica is a rapid, if not quite as complete replacement for Alonso and steps into an environment where he is expected to lead the team. There is no hiding it; Petrov really is just there for the sponsorship he brings. However, the car has had an auspicious start. It has never really looked like a potential winner but having said that, team Principal Eric Boullier let slip that they were running heavy. This car could have hidden speed but I remain skeptical. I do hope that they can build toward better things in 2011 – I expect a steady, consistent improvement throughout the year (especially if teams like Sauber, Williams and Force India drop off) and this could lead to podiums and a platform of a brighter future. 
If BMW hadn’t pulled out and kept up the development of this year’s car then they could have been on for something special. The Sauber has been very fast; producing competitive laps at most of the tests. Drivers Pedro de la Rosa and Kamui Kobayashi report that the car is very kind on its tyres – a feature that could see it do very well on a Saturday (they will be able to qualify on the softer and therefore quicker tyres). Question marks remain over the long pace of the car but I expect them to cause problems for any big team that drops the ball in the early part of the season. The biggest worry that I have for Sauber is that they won’t be able to keep up with the development race; they must be on a very tight budget considering that there are no sponsors on the car. I hope that they perform well this year if simply to keep them on the grid for 2011 and beyond – expect a lot of glory runs in qualifying to try and drum up some money. There is one more positive though; Sauber has car number 22 – this is becoming F1’s lucky number after winning the title for the last two years...
I’ve not seen Williams talk themselves up quite this much for a long time. Mind you, last year’s car was better than its championship position let on – if only Kazuki Nakijima had scored some points! Their driver pairing is good though; Barrichello will bring some much needed development experience to the team which should mean constant beneficial upgrades. Hulkenberg arrives after a season in GP2 where he dominated more than Hamilton. This kid has got something. Testing has been mixed for the team but it seems that the car really does have some pace. I said in my first blog prediction that Williams will win a race this year. I certainly think that they are my favorites for 5th in the constructors table (I think they will out-develop Sauber) and therefore ready maximize an opportunity if it is presented. Watch out for Hulkenberg in the rain.
I like Force India and their car seems to be the best they (in any guise) have produced for about 10 years. It is unlucky that they have chosen a year where the midfield is extremely crowded to make it. They have set 6th as their championship target but that would mean beating two of the midfield heavyweights (Williams, Renault and Sauber). I just can’t see them doing it; they could, but they could equally finish 8th. It will depend on circumstantial events like picking up big points in bad weather. The technical partnership with McLaren will surely help though. 
This is all assuming that Toro Rosso finishes 9th. It looks like the natural choice; they were last in 2009 when they were effectively running the best car on the grid so how are they going to do any better than beat the new teams now that they have to design their own car? I think that they will finish 9th but I think that they will qualify respectably throughout the year. They certainly seem able to extract some quick laps from the car but my question is over the longevity of their pace and this is something the rest of the top 8 will be able to improve more efficiently.
The Wishful Thinkers
The fact that USF1 failed to make the grid means that my prediction of them being pointless has come true. Honestly though, with the quality of the established teams I think that all of the new guys will struggle. They really will be in a championship of their own – it is going to take 9 retirements for a new car to score if the pace that they were running in testing is their limit (and assuming that Hispania are similarly slow). Having said that, these teams must be respected for achieving to make cars that are only five seconds a lap slower than established teams’ considering they have been put together in about 6-8 months.
The Virgin car was the first to be launched and they have taken the pioneering route into entering the big-time. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) as a tool for aerodynamic design is definitely powerful but it will be interesting to see how it fares against the teams who have used a mix of CFD and a wind-tunnel. If testing is anything to go by they are going to struggle to reach the end of a race – I fear that there are lots of mechanical issues that must be addressed before the pace is improved. The car is pretty though and I think the team brings some character to the grid. I wish them (and lead driver Timo Glock) well.
Lotus has won 79 races in F1. I think it might stay that way for a while; they made it to testing despite being the last team confirmed for the grid, they have a good technical staff (a lot ex-Toyota) who should keep this team moving forward and they do seem financially stable but the car is slow. Out of the box it was slower than the Virgin and it does look boxy. However, as I said they are the new team most likely to improve over the year and they have two drivers who have won races and have something to prove. Furthermore, this car does seem more reliable than the Virgin which will mean that it is the most likely to profit should carnage occur further up the field. They are my prediction for top of the new teams.
Who knows what will happen with Hispania; the car looks quite nice and I really want to see if Bruno can make the Senna name win again but it won’t happen this year. I fear that they simply won’t have the funds to develop and they will therefore miss out entirely. This team looks like its heading the way of Midland and Spyker.
The Final Verdict
After assessing all of the form I find it hard to pick a winner. 8 drivers should win races this year – I can’t see anyone dominating. This year could be decided by the drivers and not the cars (that would be unusual) but maybe by luck. However, if I had to put money on it I would go for Alonso; I think the Ferrari will get off to a good start and he will do the rest. I predict a Williams win (somewhere like Canada) and strong early showings from Sauber (particularly in the Australian GP where it pays to be really soft on the tyres and accidents often happen). I think that Lotus will finish top of the new teams but they won’t start as the best (Hispania could surprise us there). Finally, I think that my disappointment of the season will be Renault – I can’t see them doing as well as they want.
Driver’s Championship top 3:
Alonso, Hamilton, Vettel
Constructor’s Championship table
1. McLaren 7. Force India
2. Ferrari 8. Renault3. Red Bull 9. Toro Rosso
4. Mercedes 10. Lotus5. Williams 11. Hispania
6. Sauber 12. VirginBahrain Top 3:
Alonso, Hamilton, Button
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