Will the Rule Changes Make a Difference? Part 3

My final installment assessing the new rules for next year looks into the most extreme change; NO refuelling.

Refuelling was only introduced in 1994 to improve the racing; it was found that cars were becoming 'strung out' and there was minimum overtaking. Adding both the human element of refuelling and the strategic element cars pitting at different times was meant to increase interest and improve the spectacle.

For 2010 the FIA has decided that returning to the days of no refuelling is what is now needed to improve the racing. The FIA argue that having cars that are filled to the brim at the start and empty at the end will improve the racing because the cars will get quicker and quicker throughout the race. This might be true and it might also be true that the driver who protects his tyres the best throughout the race will prevail in the end but there is a certain aspect which now says that whoever is on pole should win. The reason for this is that part three of qualifying (where drivers had been qualifying with race fuel on board in '09) will now be held with minimum fuel and as such the fastest car/driver package will almost always be on pole. If the fastest is starting on pole and then starts the race full to the brim then we could see a lot of processional races where no one overtakes because the extra fuel is making the car too hard to drive.

The upside to the new rule is the very same thing; having a larger amount of fuel makes it harder for the driver. Overtaking at the start will be harder but defending positions will also be harder - think about it, the cars will be harder on the breaks due to the increased weight that is going to require stopping. Simply pulling away from the starting positions will be harder and anyone with clutch problems could struggle. However, the biggest factor will be tyre management. Drivers who are kind to their tyres (like Button, Trulli & Schumacher) will find it easier for the first half of the race because they will still be able to extract performance from the tyres for the whole stint and therefore should be able to deliver more consistent lap times for this part of the race. On the flip side to this is the fact that drivers who are more agressive and like oversteer in the car (Hamilton, Alonso & Kubica) will come into their own when the car gets lighter.

Logically, the cars will start the race very prone to understeer; the fuel tank is positioned towards the rear of the car and will therefore lower the likelihood of the rear sliding. However, they could end the race completely the opposite when the tank is nearly empty (and the tyres are nearly worn out) because there will be relatively little rear grip and the cars could slide a lot. This could make things very interesting for the last 10 laps when everyone's car is performing differently - expect to see most of the overtaking in this phase of the race.

So will this rule change improve the racing? I personally doubt that it will have as much effect as the FIA want because the engineering in F1 is so good. For example let's look at McLaren. Button likes understeer and so the car would be set up with a very neutral weight distribution when no fuel is in the car so that when fuel is added the car becomes more understeery. Simply, he would start the race with understeer balance and finish it (in theory) with neutral balance. On the other side of the garage is Hamilton, who likes oversteer. He would set the car up so that most of the ballast is at the front of the car. This would neutralise the effect of adding fuel for the first part of the race (and therefore minimise understeer) and as the fuel burns the car would become more and more oversteery. If this proves to be the case, and actually the drivers are all really close to each other then the person on pole will win - this could actually make the races more boring.

I hope that this rule change makes some kind of improvement to the racing and doesn't dumb down the spectacle but I am sceptical. I feel that this could go the way of the no tyre change rule for 2005 where it is in place for a year and then removed for the following year. At the very least, this change will force some design alterations (to fit in the larger fuel tank and to make the car as soft as possible on its tyres - an aspect which could hamper Red Bull) and whenever there are design changes the pecking order could be changed.
 

p.s. I will miss the odd pitstop fire now and then.