Honda, BMW and Toyota have already pulled the plug - surely an outburst by Renault's CEO means that we should fear the worst for the much loved French outfit.
Renault had a poor 2009. There are no two ways about it, they were simply awful. The only highlight came at Singapore where Fernando Alonso dragged his car onto the podium. In fact, a late season surge from BMW meant that Renault finished the season in 8th. If you take into account the fact that Force India only started scoring in the latter part of the season and that Toro Rosso enjoyed the improved Red Bull chassis for the last couple of races; it could be argued that Renault went backwards in performance and were the worst at the end. Of course, going backwards just means that they weren't going fast enough forwards; not developing enough. This is a sure fire clue that Renault gave up about midway through the year and decided to get an early start on the 2010 challenger but will we get to see (new lead driver) Robert Kubica drive this car in anger? After Carlos Ghosn (Renault-Nissan CEO) reportedly said that F1 would soon be "not very important for everyone," I have my doubts.
Like most teams, Renault managed to miss the double diffuser loophole in the rules for '09. This meant that they were already on the back foot, but the car had more fundemantal problems than that - it just lacked downforce. This had an effect on both drivers - Alonso wanted out. ASAP. Nelson Piquet Jnr (never the best anyway) was often found trying too hard and ending up in the armco barriers. Renault swiftly dismissed Piquet and hired the unprepared Grosjean. What was he meant to do? At least he was French (good publicity at home).
There was a twist though. Piquet rocked F1 with the 'crashgate' scandal which showed that the team had cheated its way to victory in the '08 Singapore GP. This caused internal carnage for the team - losing two of its most senior figures, its title sponsor and a lot of credit in one foul swoop. With Alonso off to Ferrari for 2010, Renault had become a mere shadow of a few years ago (when they claimed both world championships in 2005 & 2006.
Although (temporary) team principle Bob Bell has done a good job of solidifying the team and giving them hope, it is out of his hands whether Renault is allowed to continue its adventures in F1. Rumours have been rife that the parent company doesn't want to fill the void left by ING (ex-title sponsor) and so when crisis meetings were held a few weeks ago it seemed like this team was heading for the exit. Interestingly though they haven't stepped through it (yet).
I think that those meetings were resolved with the following agreement between the parent company and race team; Renault is allowed to go racing next year IF they can find a way of replacing the finances lost fromm ING. This would make sense as there have been many reports about potential buy-ins and it would also explain the early announcement of the (highly marketable) Kubica. This also gives Renault the ability to see what (financial) punishment is given to Toyota for pulling out (and therefore breaking the Concorde agreement - signed as commitment to the sport until 2012) and thus whether it would just be better to fund the team (at least for a while-until the economy settles further and more people want to invest).
Ghosn's outburst may have been telling though. An announcement is expected before the end of 2009 as to the future intentions of Renault F1. The comments made by the CEO imply that the aim of Renault as a company has changed with the times; they are now more focussed on being green than being sporty. It just sounds like he's starting to make excuses already. Time must be waring thin to find a sponsor. Timo Glock's announcement as a Manor driver shows what he thinks will happen. Once favourite for the seat alongside Kubica, Glock has signed with one of the new teams (unkown performance level) rather than waiting to see if Renault (who are surely going to at least be respectable next year) make it to the grid. Similarly, Mercedes are holding fire on their second driver signing in the hope that they can catch Kubica if Renault don't make it.
If 2009 was Renault's last season I, for one, will miss them. To me they are the team which broke the stranglehold of Schumi and Ferrari when they romped to the 2005 title. As a Brit, I am not allowed to like many French things but I was always glad to see them win. They are a team which seems to have a youthful, Latin vibe which makes me smile and provides a contrast to the clinical nature of McLaren or the occasional arrogance of Ferrari.
Lets hope they do pull through. It would not be fair to let things end with the bitter taste of 2009 and as I said earlier, they must have been developing the 2010 car for a while - Renault could prove to be one of the suprises for next year.
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