Forza Ferrari!?

The Bahrain Grand Prix seems a long time ago now. I can barely remember what happened (or didn’t happen) in the desert back in March and after that race no one would have predicted 5 different winners, all of them now ving neck and neck, seemingly racing within a couple seconds of each other race after race.

Canada typified this trend; as I said before the battle is between the two McLarens, the two Red Bulls and Fernando Alonso. Others like Kubica, Massa, Rosberg and Schumi could all have a say (or even win races themselves before the season is out) but I think that the top five all have a steely determination and intensity that the others seem to be lacking.

It is credit to Ferrari and McLaren that they have closed in on the Red Bulls and it seems that whilst the team from Milton Keynes still has the best all round package they might regret that they didn’t follow Brawn’s 2009 example and make hay whilst the sun shone.

Valencia will go a long way to shaping how the 2010 season will finish. If Lewis Hamilton becomes the first driver of 2010 to complete a hat-trick of wins (particularly as they would be back to back) then you would have to wonder how the others would stifle such momentum. Similarly, if Red Bull bounce back and secure a 1-2 around a street circuit which caused them a lot of problems last year then the other teams might start to fear them once again. However, as much as I like and support the British super-team at McLaren, I think that I will be cheering Alonso this weekend. To my mind, Fernando has kept himself unnoticed in the title race this year but he does pose a huge threat (and he was my pre-season prediction). He could have won in Australia if he hadn’t been shunted in the first lap and he was really on it in Monaco until he decided to reshape his Ferrari in 3rd practice. Moreover, he finished second around Barcelona (let’s not forget that Red Bull’s advantage was about 0.7s per lap around there) and he could well have won in Canada had the traffic been more favourable.

Ferrari are also bringing a much improved F10 to Valencia where they hope that their Red Bull inspired exhaust system (where it feeds into the diffuser to increase downforce) will see them run even closer to the front. It is crucial that they succeed – McLaren, Mercedes and Renault are all rumoured to be bringing their versions to Silverstone in a couple of weeks.

The next few races could therefore prove to be a turning point; one where Red Bull’s advantage is eroded fully and parity is found. For one, I hope this is true – there were 6 different winners in 2009 but I would happily watch 5 drivers share the wins as evenly as possible and take the title to the wire. This weekend though, my money is on Ferrari and if I was a betting man I may even have a small wager on Massa (despite what I have just written). If the Ferrari proves to be fast then Massa can win (he did so at the inaugural race at Valencia in 2008). He might need a little luck but you never know...

Canada Result

 

 

* F.Massa deducted 20 seconds

Fastest Lap: Robert Kubica - 1:16.972

Musings from Istanbul...

The Turkish GP was both exhilarating and intriguing at the same time. MATF1 was lucky enough to be at the race (my first) and the atmosphere was awesome. Situated in the grandstand of turns 3, 4, 5 & 6, turns 1, 8 and 11 were also visible – as was the back straight. Of course, this was the scene of Red Bull’s capitulation; a crash that signified the self imposed pressure on Vettel’s shoulders and highlighted how Webber would rather have seen them both retire than let his ‘boy-wonder’ team mate regain the momentum within the team. I don’t blame the Aussie; he had every right to hold his line and it was young Sebastian who moved across into his path, but Webber normally seems so much wiser than to let an accident happen. As with all drivers of his generation and experience, they know that to finish first, first you have to finish.

There is more to it of course. For the first time since they have been paired together, Webber has had the upper hand over Vettel – a scenario that saw them tied at the top of the table (albeit with Webber listed first on win count back) prior to the race in Turkey. Also, as Webber’s chance last year was written off by his early season form (and Brawn’s pace), 2010 represents his absolutely BEST chance at the world title – new regulations for 2011 could see the Red Bull advantage gone next year. If the RB7 is a dud then Mark might never get the chance again; he must make the most of this one.

By comparison, Vettel is widely tipped for legendary status before his time in F1 is up. He is now in his third full season after he made his debut substituting for Robert Kubica at the US GP in 2007 (where he scored points) and he has already won 6 races (at this stage of their respective careers, Schumacher and Alonso had won only 1 race – and they were both older than Vettel is now). However, Vettel has NEVER been beaten by a team mate. More accurately, Sebastian has rarely done less than blow his team mates away. He doesn’t know how to cope with Mark’s form at the moment let alone the luck the Aussie is getting (Seb would have beaten Mark to pole had it not been for a failure of a rollbar linkage – he was generally the quicker of the Bulls last weekend). All of this piled onto his shoulders and left him (in his mind anyway) with little choice than to take the half-chance overtake when it presented itself.

This overtake was loaded; succeed and Vettel would have been at the top of the standings and would have found his footing once again. If he had succeeded we may have seen some Sebastian dominance over the next few races, but he didn’t and now finds himself in 5th place in the standings; still struggling to find his mojo. Red Bull need to put their arm around Vettel and remind him that his time WILL come again; reassure him that he was the quickest in Istanbul and try to encourage him to redouble his focus and remember that the season is long. If they don’t then they could face losing their star should Mercedes come along and offer a seat (which could happen if Schumi re-retires).

There is another factor though. McLaren. What was a 0.8 second advantage in Spain was 0.1s in quali and nothing in the race. The Brits have caught the Bulls; their cars have different strengths but over a lap they were all but equal in Turkey. This adds another problem because this team knows how to win titles and neither driver has the pressure of the Red Bulls. Hamilton is confident he can out-race anybody and I don’t think that anybody is driving as maturely and completely as Jenson Button at the moment; he is thinking all the time – knowing when to have a go and when to settle for second. Add a new aero package which has given the McLarens the edge around tight and twisty corners (not to mention the F-duct which is giving them a 6kph straight line advantage) and you can see why they too could be dominant in the coming races.

Turkey may not have decided the title race but it has definitely shaped it and turned it; Red Bull was just starting to pull away from the field but their advantage is now non-existent. McLaren are expected to dominate along the straights of the circuit de Gilles Villeneuve in Montreal and if that turns out to be true then the Bulls might start to regret their early season mistakes (Bahrain, Australia & China) which cost them the head start Brawn enjoyed last year. To this, add two drivers who are so hungry that they won’t even offer each other an inch of tarmac and you can see how they might have already defeated themselves.

Turkey was the 7th race in a 19 race season and I think that the potential 8 driver list who could win the Championship is now down 5. Mark Webber, Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel are the drivers who have won races this season and I feel the winner will be one of them. For Mercedes and Massa only an unprecedented run of victories will steer them towards the title now and judging by the pace of the leading two teams, Fernando Alonso could soon be out of the running too (Ferrari slipped behind both Mercedes and Renault in Istanbul).

So who would you pick; Red Bull or McLaren?

Turkey Result

 Fastest Lap: Vitaly Petrov - 1:29.165

Monaco Result

* M. Schumacher deducted 20 seconds for illegal overtake

Fastest Lap: Sebastian Vettel - 1:15.2

How Monaco Could Cause an Upset...

I've said it for some time and today I put my money where my mouth is; I think that Renault could win in Monaco. You may say that with the dominance of the front runners (in particular Red Bull in qualifying) that a bet on the team currently placed 5th is just a waste of money but there are a few reasons why it may not be such a stupid bet:

- Firstly, qualifying is going to be...interesting. Bruno Senna mooted the idea of splitting quali 1 so that the front runners don't have to worry about the new boys (who will probably make up the last 6 places on the grid) and so that the new teams themselves can actually get a clean lap rather than spending the whole time looking in their mirrors. Luckily, this idea wasn't passed and everyone will take to the track. I'm willing to bet that someone will get it wrong and not manage to find a clear lap to set a time. This could just as easily be a McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull or Mercedes as a Williams or Sauber.  

- Secondly, the weather. Early reports show signs of rain for most of this week and if that is continued into the race then there could be carnage - not all of the top cars will survive. Guaranteed. This is the reason why a cheeky Adrian Sutil podium bet might be worth a shout - remember his wet practice lap in 2007 and how he managed to get up to 4th in the wet in 2008 (before Kimi Raikkonen crashed into him)?

- Next, rookies and bad handling cars - even if it is dry I think that at least one will crash which will lead to a safety car. This could bring strategy into it.

- Performance is often a lot leveller at Monaco - a circuit where as much grip needs to be generated as possible but there are no fast, sweeping corners to test the car to the full and the lower speeds mean that the cars don't tend to generate as much aerodynamic grip anyway. This should mean that Red Bull's advantage (if they have one) is not as big.

- Tyre performance; whilst Spain has shown Red Bull making gains in this area, if they turn out to be working the tyres too much then they will suffer by the end.

- Short (relatively anyway) wheelbase. This is a feature that isn't really noticed on the Renault car but it isn't as long as the big teams - in particular Ferrari and McLaren and this will surely make it more nimble in the tight, twisty corners.

- Good traction. This is something that I have noticed with the Renault and it is something they used to be very good at in 2003/4; they seem to have good traction out of the corners. This will help if it is true.

- Efficient engine. I have already said how important tyre wear is and the fact that the Renault engine is so efficient means that they have to carry less fuel at the start of the race. This means less strain on the tyres.

- Robert Kubica is driving as well as ever and seems determined to either bring Renault back to the top or set himself up for a Ferrari seat in 2011. He also finished second here in 2008 (in the wet).

- Fianlly, a rookie team mate. If all else fails, get Petrov to crash just after Kubica pits to trigger a safety car and hand the win to the Pole...maybe this is a little cynical?

So, as you can see, there is such a long list that I'm practically certain of a return on my money. The only thing missing was experience which is why a bet on Williams's Rubens Barrichello (at 200:1) is worth a go - if just for the podium. If this happens then it would also make good my prediction of a Williams win (something which isn't looking like the best shout I've ever made). Having said that, I really do feel that Renault could shine. Watch this space.

Spanish GP Result

Fastest Lap: Lewis Hamilton - 1:24.357