Can 2011 Live Up To Expectations?

2010 was superb, 2009 a landmark, 2008 dramatic to the last and 2007 the same. Each of the above has delivered a new champion and arguably been better than the previous, can 2011 deliver more of the same?

2011 will see the third iteration of the rules introduced in 2009. Gone are the double diffusers and in come moveable rear wings. KERS also makes a reappearance, giving a little benefit to the teams who have it and giving all teams the chance to explore further into the technology which will be a major performance differential from 2013 onwards (when the regulations have their next periodic overhaul). However, the biggest difference for 2011 is the move to Pirelli tyres. Pirelli have specifically designed tyres which are sub-optimal; tyres which don't last indefinitely and therefore should induce an extra pitstop into most races. The obvious conclusion is therefore just a statement which has been true for as long as F1 has existed - the car/driver combination which best manages its tyres will probably be the strongest. But, will this make for a competitive and close season?

Well, as far as drivers are concerned, there are 5 world champions on the grid and at least another 3 (Webber, Massa & Rosberg) who aren't too far off. To this end, if the cars are evenly matched, it is reasonable to expect multiple winners from multiple teams; plenty are capable of it.

So the real question is whether the teams will be close in performance or not. Testing is notoriously difficult and unreliable to read but there is no doubting that the Red Bull is supremely fast. Ferrari tend to try and hog the limelight; peppering their long (consistent) runs with flashes of qualifying pace but it's the reigning champions who exude an air of confidence that comes with scoring 14 of the 19 pole positions last year. So are they touchable? Ferrari are close, very close. Indeed with Fernando Alonso behind the wheel they are very close indeed. McLaren feel pressured to win a constructor's title for the first time since 1998. They have two experienced world champions as drivers and most of the British public behind them. They want this seemingly more than the driver's crown and as such have gone radical in their design. It remains to be seen just how fast the MP4/26 actually is but I am optimistic; especially with the teams relative success with KERS in 2009. A word of warning though - so far testing puts them roughly 3rd; I hope they're hiding something.

Mercedes and Renault may also challenge in parts but they both seem inconsistent. The Renault in particular seems capable of very fast single laps but I get the impression that it isn't quite as kind on its tyres as the top teams. I would love to see it win though; the car is undoubtedly the most attractive of the 2011 crop. However, I feel that it's best chance was Robert Kubica. I wish him a speedy recovery - Nick Heidfeld is no slouch but cannot seem to drag every ounce from the car like Kubica - he will be missed. Mercedes is pinning its hopes on a pre-season upgrade but from what I have seen I doubt that Schumi will reach championship 8 this year.

So, will anyone usurp Red Bull? I doubt it - I really think that 2011 will see Vettel retain his crown and moreover I fear that the team will be even better now that they don't have the pressure of delivering the first title. I think they will have learnt from the tactical and political errors that they made last year and as their car is an evolution of the RB6 they will be reliable too. Expect domination, almost. Ferrari will be close and have their own political pressures to deliver a title but I really don't expect a repeat of the 5-way fight we saw last year.

I hope I'm proved wrong but in my opinion 2011 is going to break the trend and thusly deliver the same champions as 2010.

My Thoughts on the Ferrari/Germany Debacle

This week has seen more talk from the Ferrari camp labelling the other teams “hypocrites” with regards to the German GP debacle. Oddly, this time the comments are from team boss Stefano Domenicali rather than the more eccentric chairman Luca di Montezemolo and this gives them a certain credibility that was lacking originally. The fact is though, that I believe Ferrari are right. I think that they were right to swap their cars and they are right to call the other teams’ hypocrites and here are some case studies as to why:

1. Brazil 2007 – Felipe Massa was given a ‘long’ pitstop which allowed team mate Kimi Raikkonen to win the race and therefore the championship.

2. Germany 2008 – Heikki Kovalainen moved over for Lewis Hamilton so that the eventual champion could claim an extra 4 points (as he easily closed up and overtook leader Nelson Piquet Jr.). As Hamilton won the title by a single point, these points proved invaluable.

3. China 2006 – Fisichella allowed Alonso past for second place so that the Spaniard could minimise the points lost to race winner Michael Schumacher.

In each of the above cases a move was expected which is why no one had any problems with them (despite all of them occurring since the ban of team orders in 2002). However, I put the case that in each of the above the moves interfered with the result of not only the respective race but also the Championship in each of those years thereby directly contravening rule 39.1 which states that “team orders which interfere with a race result are prohibited”. So why was no one reprimanded?

I believe that this is because each of the above was done to help the (only) member of the team that could win the title – this is why we (the viewers) were expecting the moves and didn’t mind them too much. In Germany this year, Massa was still (mathematically) in the hunt.

However, this isn’t the only situation this year where teams have attempted to manipulate the results – the prime example is Turkey.

At Istanbul the Red Bulls collided because the team told Webber to turn his engine revs down to try and allow Vettel to win. Technically, if Vettel had won it would have been down to team orders and also had that order not been made then the team mates probably wouldn’t have collided (thusly whichever way you look at it Red Bull interfered with the probable race result). At the same race, Hamilton was told to take it easy and Button closed up (and passed) – whilst I think this wasn’t down to team preference, Lewis was definitely told that Jenson wouldn’t attack so either McLaren only gave Lewis an order or they gave both drivers an order which arguably means they interfered.

The same goes for Silverstone. Consider the fact that Red Bull controversially swapped the front wings on Webber and Vettel’s cars. If Vettel had won that race could it have been put down to team orders?

So, whilst Ferrari may have been heavy handed in the way they dealt with Massa, I certainly believe that Alonso is the only chance the Scuderia have of winning a title this year and the extra 5 points he gained could be invaluable. Furthermore, given the aforementioned incidents with Red Bull and McLaren, they are right to accuse the others of hypocrisy too.

Hungary Result

Fastest Lap: Sebastian Vettel - 1:22.362

Germany Result

Fastest Lap: Sebastian Vettel - 1:15.824

Heikki Leads the Championship!?

I saw an article in either F1 Racing or Autosport a few months ago which used a scoring system to rate the performances of the new teams. They basically eliminated all the other cars from the classification of each race and gave the 6 perennial back markers the top 6 points positions – this gave a mini championship table. However, the problem with such a system is that it doesn’t take into account those races where the new boys have finished ahead of some of the existing teams (as Kovalainen did with Petrov in Canada). To compensate for this, I have put together a method of scoring every single position and made my own version of the aforementioned mini chapionship.

The scoring went as follows: 75, 60, 50, 42, 36, 32, 29, 26, 23, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Hamilton still leads Button at the top but I was interested in the new teams' positions:

Drivers:                                                                  Teams:
19. Kovalainen  74                                                  10. Lotus  134 
20. Chandhok   72                                                  11. Hispania  127
21. Di Grassi   61                                                   12. Virgin  115
22. Trulli   60
23. Glock   54
24. Senna   50
25. Yamamoto   5


It is not a surprise to find Kovalainen and Lotus at the top of this mini table but what is interesting is that it is not his teammate Trulli in second. Instead, he is being hounded by Chandhok which reflects the way that the Indian has been doggedly dragging the Hispania to the end of races. What is more surprising though is how Di Grassi is sitting in third; news that would surely give a boost to the Virgin team and reflects how Glock and Trulli have seemed increasingly fed up with being at the back. It isn’t good reading for Senna either; he was bottom of the other publication’s table and he is bottom of this one too (it is unfair to judge Yamamoto after one race).

I will keep an eye on how these tables develop over the second half of the season so that the champion of the new teams can be crowned at the end. Not a serious point but interesting nonetheless.

Who's Right For Renault?

Vitaly Petrov started the season well; indeed he scored points in his fourth race – China this year. However, since then he seems to have fallen back and with his highly rated teammate showing what the R30 can really do he is now under pressure to retain his seat for 2011. In fact, PlanetF1 are reporting that as many as 8 drivers are competing to replace the rookie.

Some might say that Petrov is only driving in Formula 1 because of his passport; as the first driver from Russia he certainly gets Bernie Ecclestone’s backing especially if his participation pathes the way for a race around Moscow in years to come. Furthermore, he joined the French outfit at a time of particular difficulty and the Lada sponsorship he brought with him was arguably more important to the team than performance at the time. Results this year have been good though and the guys at Enstone have produced a very neat and tidy car and are all but guaranteed to finish fifth (possibly higher if Mercedes switch attention to next year early). This success has given the team a renewed joie de vivre, as well as probably attracting a raft of sponsors for the future. For this reason the team are looking to employ a really strong second driver to help lift the team further and as all the other top teams are already fully booked they have the most desirable seat in the paddock.

Here are the candidates for the seat:

1.Kimi Raikkonen – sorely missed by the paddock; just imagine if an in form Kimi had been racing this year too (he would have been the 5th Champion on the grid). He certainly has the speed and will not cause any problems within the team but he is no number 2 and the team has promised to build around Kubica. He’s also expensive and seems to be enjoying his stint rallying (he was as high as fifth last weekend – before he crashed) I can’t see him returning for anyone other than Red Bull/McLaren/Mercedes and I certainly can’t see Renault paying the amount he expects.

2. Nick Heidfeld – the Mercedes tester runs the risk of being forgotten if he doesn’t find a race seat for next year. If the car is reliable he will deliver consistency and has a proven successful relationship with Kubica. Cheap and experienced, he seems a good bet to me but he doesn’t bring any sponsors and has had ample opportunities to prove himself but never quite made it.

3. Christian Klien – Last raced for Red Bull in 2006 he one of the drivers on the Hispania rota and will probably be seen in a race or two before this season’s out. Klien’s highest finish is 5th and he never really impressed in his time as a race driver. I doubt he is top of the list for Renault.

4. Timo Glock – Timo was close to securing a drive with Renault for this season but went with Virgin because at the time no-one knew whether Renault would be on the grid. He’s done as well as expected in the worst car on the grid and if I were him I would be pushing harder than anyone to get into a better team. He has a good chance – he would make a good number 2 and showed enough speed in the Toyota to imply he could do quite well. However, he has recently been closed up on by his teammate and Kobayashi did significantly better in his seat at the end of last year than he probably would have.

5. Heikki Kovalainen – of all the backmarkers, Heikki seems to enjoy life the most. Lotus is a low pressure environment which is suited to his relaxed demeanour. Having said that, the team is going about things in the right way and will be keen to keep a driver who finally seems to have matured into the best he can be. I think he is more likely to stay with the team and try and build them into a regular points scoring outfit. However, he is likable, known to the team and would not cause any problems. I’m undecided but can’t really see it.

6. Jarno Trulli – would be welcomed back to Renault now that Flavio is no longer in charge and is a renowned qualifying specialist but he didn’t really make the most of his time at Toyota and seems a little downbeat to be at the back of the grid. Is also being outshone by Heikki and is unlikely to ever show the same pace that took him to victory in Monaco 2004. I think there are better options.

7. Kamui Kobayashi – he started this season badly but has recently hit form as the Sauber has improved. He is now top rookie and could arguably take the title of Toyota’s best legacy (funny since he only did two races for them). If he continues this form and maybe has some sponsorship to bring too then he could be an attractive prospect. A good outside bet.

8. Adrian Sutil – possibly most people’s favourite for the job he needs to make the step-up now and ride the wave of a good season with Force India (or risk falling back if they aren’t as good next year). He crashes less (now that Raikkonen isn’t on the grid) and has comprehensively beaten Liuzzi. He may also have some sponsorship to bring. However, if he is that good then why has he spent three seasons in the Indian car?

It seems to me that the smart money is between Sutil, Glock and Kovalainen. Heidfeld and Kobayashi are outsiders and Raikkonen would happen if Renault were richer. The others are extremely unlikely. If it was me I would go with the solid and reliable Heidfeld or give Sutil his big chance (knowing that the following year there’s likely to be more movement in the market should things go wrong). However, Eric Boullier (Renault boss) need not rush – this seat is the most desirable out there. If I were him I would wait and see what happens at Red Bull; who knows, Mark Webber might yet be available.

Britain Result

Fastest Lap: Fernando Alonso - 1:30.847